Rough Air Over Tampa Bay
Carburetor ice, partial power loss, and a water-surrounded departure — the decision clock is measured in seconds
The scenario
Departing Peter O Knight Airport (KTPF), Tampa, FL — Runway 22, climbing out on a 217° heading. Elevation 8 ft MSL; the runway is essentially at sea level. This is a non-towered field; you will self-announce on CTAF 122.8.
It is a hazy Florida morning in late spring: OAT 26°C, dew point 21°C, altimeter 29.94. Scattered clouds at 2,800 ft, light rain shower one mile to the south. Visibility 7 SM. Classic Gulf Coast conditions — warm, moist, and exactly the environment the FAA icing probability chart marks as 'serious icing at glide power, moderate icing at cruise power.' You are in Class G airspace, but the overlying Tampa Class B (1,200 ft MSL ceiling) is 4.7 nm to the north.
You are 350 ft AGL, climbing through 75 KIAS (Vy for the C182 at sea level), heading 217°, when the engine begins to run rough. Power is noticeably down — the tachometer is dropping from 2,400 RPM. The water of Hillsborough Bay fills the windscreen ahead. You are in the initial climb phase; the airport is behind you and below.
Aircraft: Cessna 182 Skylane, solo, full fuel, within limits. Continental O-470 carbureted engine, constant-speed prop, steam panel, fuel selector on BOTH. Nothing was written up; the airplane was airworthy at departure. Cowl flaps are in cruise (closed). You did not apply carburetor heat during the run-up because the engine ran smoothly. You did not apply it after takeoff because you were heads-down on the climb and prop management.
Pilot: you — a Commercial pilot, current, high-performance endorsement current, roughly 800 hours total. You have 120 hours in type (C182). You understand the C182's heavier nose and faster approach characteristics, but you have not flown in carburetor-ice conditions before. The decision window is short: at 350 ft AGL over water, you have roughly 30 seconds of useful decision time before altitude becomes critical.
- {'label': 'Field', 'value': 'KTPF · Peter O Knight'}
- {'label': 'Runways', 'value': '4/22 · 18/36'}
- {'label': 'Elevation', 'value': '8 ft'}
- {'label': 'Aircraft', 'value': 'C182'}
- {'label': 'Dominant phase', 'value': 'Landing / Approach'}
The decision
Before we get into the decision tree — what do you already know about carburetor ice in the C182? (Pick all that apply; this records your baseline.)
What the record shows
What the NTSB files show
NTSB CEN19FA008 (2018): A Cessna 182 on a cross-country flight from California to New Mexico encountered induction system icing during cruise. The engine lost partial power. The pilot attempted to reach Albuquerque but could not maintain altitude and made a forced landing on terrain near Canoncito, New Mexico. The probable cause was partial loss of engine power due to induction system icing. A contributing factor was a fractured carburetor heat control cable, which rendered the carburetor heat inoperative — the pilot had no way to recover.
NTSB NYC07FA145 (2007): A Cessna 182C on an instructional flight experienced carburetor icing, resulting in loss of engine power. The pilot and instructor failed to maintain airspeed during the forced landing, resulting in an inadvertent stall. The probable cause was carburetor icing; the contributing cause was the pilots' failure to maintain adequate airspeed (best glide speed) during the forced landing.
NTSB ATL04FA069 (2004): A Cessna 182A on a personal flight lost engine power due to carburetor ice during cruise and made a forced landing in a field near Traphill, North Carolina. The probable cause was loss of engine power due to carburetor ice. Contributing factors were atmospheric conditions conducive to carburetor icing.
NTSB WPR25LA175 (2025): A Cessna 182P descended at low power without carburetor heat in conditions conducive to icing. The engine lost power on base leg, and the pilot made a forced landing on a gravel bar, damaging the nose gear and forward fuselage. The probable cause was the pilot's failure to use carburetor heat, which resulted in a loss of engine power due to carburetor icing.
The local environment at KTPF makes this scenario particularly unforgiving: Runway 22's departure end (heading 217°) is open water — Hillsborough Bay. An engine failure on the Runway 22 departure at low altitude is a ditching, not a field landing. There is no open field, no road, no park. The water is the off-field environment. This is not hypothetical; it is the NLCD ground cover off that runway end.
NTSB ATL97LA099 (1997, Gulf of Mexico ditching): A Cessna P210N on a personal flight experienced partial engine power loss during initial climbout and the pilot ditched in the Gulf of Mexico. The accident resulted from loss of engine power for undetermined reasons. The pilot survived the controlled ditching.
The real accidents cited above occurred at other airports and in other aircraft — NOT at Peter O Knight Airport. KTPF has its own accident history (forced landing 19.4%, loss of control 16.7%, ditching 11.1% of the field's corpus), but these specific carburetor ice events happened elsewhere. The scenario is localized to KTPF to make the off-field environment real and consequential for you as a student here.
The consistent thread across all these events: carburetor ice in the C182 is insidious. It builds gradually, the first symptom is roughness and a dropping tachometer (not a dramatic power cut), and by the time it is obvious, it may be too late for a comfortable recovery. The fix — full carburetor heat, immediately, at the first sign of roughness in conducive conditions — is simple. The failure is always a delay.
Key lesson — In warm, moist Gulf Coast air, the C182's carbureted Continental O-470 can accumulate serious carburetor ice even at cruise power and above-freezing temperatures. Apply full carburetor heat at the first sign of engine roughness or unexplained RPM loss. At low altitude over water, the decision window is measured in seconds — not minutes. Off Runway 22 at KTPF, the off-field environment is Hillsborough Bay: a delayed response means a ditching, not a field landing. You have a high-performance endorsement and 120 hours in type; this is the moment to prove you understand the C182's systems and the Gulf Coast environment.
Debrief — teaching points
Carburetor ice forms in conditions you would not expect.
The FAA icing probability chart shows 'serious icing at glide power' at temperatures between roughly 20°C and 30°C when relative humidity is high — exactly the Gulf Coast afternoon conditions at KTPF. You do not need visible ice, freezing temperatures, or IMC. Warm, moist air at reduced power is the classic carb-ice environment. The C182's Continental O-470 is carbureted; it has no fuel injection or alternate air system. Carburetor heat is the only tool. The constant-speed prop and cowl flaps add workload, but they do not change the carb-ice response.
The first symptom is subtle — a dropping tachometer and engine roughness.
In a constant-speed prop airplane like the C182, carburetor ice first shows as engine roughness and an unexplained RPM decrease. There is no dramatic power cut. Pilots who are not actively monitoring the tachometer miss the early warning. By the time the roughness is obvious, significant ice has accumulated. Scan the tachometer as part of your regular instrument scan, especially in conducive conditions. The C182's higher workload (prop pitch, cowl flaps, faster approach speed) makes this scan even more critical.
Apply full carburetor heat — not partial — and expect an initial RPM drop.
When you apply carb heat to an iced carburetor, the RPM will drop further before it rises. This is expected and normal: the heat is melting ice and the resulting water is briefly disrupting combustion. Do not remove carb heat when the RPM drops — that is the heat working. Hold it full on. The RPM will recover as the ice clears, typically within 15–30 seconds depending on ice accumulation. Partial carb heat can worsen the situation by partially melting ice into water ingestion without fully clearing the restriction.
At KTPF Runway 22, an engine failure on departure is a ditching.
The off-field environment off Runway 22's departure end (heading 217°) is open water — Hillsborough Bay. There is no alternate landing surface. If the engine quits on the Runway 22 departure and altitude is insufficient to return to the airport, the outcome is a ditching. This is not a worst-case scenario; it is the geographic reality. Best glide is 70 KIAS. Doors unlatched before water contact. Master off just before impact. Flaps for slowest possible touchdown speed — impact energy rises with the square of touchdown speed, so the slowest possible speed matters most. Know this before you line up on Runway 22. The C182's heavier nose and faster approach speed (Vref 60 KIAS) make the descent steeper than a 172; manage it.
Proactive carb heat use in conducive conditions is not optional.
The C182 POH and the FAA Pilot's Handbook of Aeronautical Knowledge both recommend applying carburetor heat when conditions are conducive to icing — before the symptom appears. In a Gulf Coast summer departure, with OAT near 26°C and dew point near 21°C, that means applying carb heat during the run-up check (and confirming the expected RPM drop, then recovery) and considering its use during climb in visible moisture or high humidity. Waiting for the roughness to appear at 350 ft AGL over Hillsborough Bay is waiting too long. You have a high-performance endorsement; this is part of the responsibility.
Built from the real accident record
Scenario built from NTSB CEN19FA008 (2018 C182 induction icing / forced landing), NYC07FA145 (2007 C182C carburetor icing / stall on landing), ATL04FA069 (2004 C182A carburetor ice loss of power), WPR25LA175 (2025 C182P carburetor heat omission / forced landing), and regional precedents ATL97LA099, NYC03LA109, BFO91LA069 (engine loss / ditching decisions). Anonymized and localized to KTPF.
NTSB reports: CEN19FA008 · NYC07FA145 · ATL04FA069 · WPR25LA175 · ATL97LA099 · NYC03LA109 · BFO91LA069
ACS tasks: PA.I.F — Weather Information · PA.I.G — Cross-Country Flight Planning · PA.IX.C — Emergency Approach and Landing · PA.I.H — Human Factors · PA.II.B — Engine Starting / Systems Preflight · PA.V.A — Preflight Inspection · PA.V.B — Cockpit Management
Relevant FARs: §91.3 · §91.13 · §91.185 · §61.31
Step through the full decision tree, make the calls, and see where each choice leads — then debrief it with your CFI.
Open the interactive scenario →All sample scenarios · More Cessna 182 Skylane scenarios · More scenarios at KTPF