Rough Climb Over Tampa Bay
Carburetor ice, partial power loss, and a water-surrounded airport — the decision clock is measured in seconds
The scenario
Departing Peter O Knight Airport (KTPF), Tampa, FL — Runway 22, climbing out on a 217° heading. Elevation 8 ft MSL; the runway is essentially at sea level. This is a non-towered field (CTAF 122.8); you are in Class G airspace, but the overlying Tampa Class B begins at 1,200 ft MSL.
It is a hazy Florida afternoon in late spring: OAT 27°C, dew point 21°C, altimeter 29.92. Scattered clouds at 2,500 ft, light rain shower two miles to the northeast. Visibility 8 SM. Classic Gulf Coast conditions — warm, moist, and exactly the environment the FAA icing probability chart marks as 'serious icing at glide power, moderate icing at cruise power.' The Lycoming O-320 in your Piper Warrior is carbureted and vulnerable.
You are 350 ft AGL, climbing through 79 KIAS (Vy), heading 217°, when the engine begins to run rough. Power is noticeably down — the tachometer is dropping. Off Runway 22's departure end (heading 217°), the off-field environment is open water — Hillsborough Bay. KTPF is non-towered; you are on CTAF. Nothing was written up; the airplane was airworthy at departure.
Aircraft: Piper PA-28-161 Warrior, solo, full fuel (48 gal total, left and right tanks), within limits. Carbureted Lycoming O-320-D, fixed-pitch prop, steam panel, fuel selector on LEFT tank. You did not apply carburetor heat during the run-up because the engine ran smoothly. You did not apply it after takeoff because you were heads-down on the climb.
Pilot: you — a Private pilot, current, roughly 180 hours total. You are familiar with the Warrior's fuel selector (LEFT / RIGHT / OFF — no BOTH position). You understand that tank management is your responsibility. You have never experienced carburetor ice.
- {'label': 'Field', 'value': 'KTPF · Peter O Knight'}
- {'label': 'Runways', 'value': '4/22 · 18/36'}
- {'label': 'Elevation', 'value': '8 ft'}
- {'label': 'Aircraft', 'value': 'PA-28-161'}
- {'label': 'Dominant phase', 'value': 'Landing / Approach'}
The decision
Before we get into the decision tree — what do you already know about carburetor ice in the Piper Warrior? (Pick all that apply; this records your baseline.)
What the record shows
What the NTSB files show
NTSB CEN12LA175 (2012): A Piper PA-28-161 on an instrument instructional flight experienced progressive engine power loss due to carburetor icing during climb through 6,500 feet. The probable cause was carburetor icing in conditions conducive to serious icing, with a contributing factor of limited carburetor heat valve travel from recent maintenance. The pilot did not apply carburetor heat proactively.
NTSB LAX03LA238 (2003): A Piper PA-28-161 experienced partial engine power loss during initial climb from Torrance due to carburetor icing. During a go-around attempt, the pilot failed to maintain adequate airspeed, resulting in a stall and collision with power lines and terrain. The probable cause was carburetor icing and the pilot's failure to use carburetor heat.
NTSB CEN09CA532 (2009): A Piper PA-28-161 on a personal return-to-airport flight lost engine power during descent due to carburetor icing one mile from the airport. The pilot made a forced landing in a corn field and sustained a broken arm. The probable cause was the pilot's failure to apply carburetor heat in icing-conducive conditions.
NTSB ATL04LA124 (2004): A Piper PA-28-161 on a personal flight lost engine power during climb in conditions favorable for carburetor ice formation, and the pilot made a forced landing on a beach. The probable cause was the pilot's failure to use carburetor heat when weather conditions were favorable for ice formation.
NTSB NYC03LA012 (2002): A Piper PA-28-161 student pilot on a solo instructional flight lost engine power near Lakewood, New Jersey, due to carburetor ice. The accident resulted from the student pilot's improper use of carburetor heat, which failed to remove accumulated ice.
The local environment at KTPF makes this scenario particularly unforgiving: Runway 22's departure end (heading 217°) is open water — Hillsborough Bay. An engine failure on the Runway 22 departure at low altitude is a ditching, not a field landing. There is no open field, no road, no park. The water is the off-field environment. This is not hypothetical; it is the NLCD ground cover off that runway end.
NTSB ATL97LA099 (1997, Cessna P210N): A pilot experienced partial engine power loss during initial climbout and ditched in the Gulf of Mexico. NTSB NYC03LA109 (2003, Cessna 175A): A pilot experienced partial power loss during initial climb and ditched in shallow water near Ocean City, New Jersey after being unable to maintain altitude for return. NTSB BFO91LA069 (1991, Cessna 177RG): A pilot lost engine power at 300 feet AGL during initial climb and executed a controlled ditching in the Ohio River. These real accidents occurred at other airports — NOT at Peter O Knight Airport. KTPF has its own accident history (see field dominant patterns), but these specific events happened elsewhere.
The consistent thread across all these events: carburetor ice in the PA-28-161 Warrior is insidious. It builds gradually, the first symptom is roughness and a dropping tachometer (not a dramatic power cut), and by the time it is obvious, it may be too late for a comfortable recovery. The fix — full carburetor heat, immediately, at the first sign of roughness in conducive conditions — is simple. The failure is always a delay.
Key lesson — In warm, moist Gulf Coast air, the PA-28-161's carbureted Lycoming O-320 can accumulate serious carburetor ice even at cruise power and above-freezing temperatures. Apply full carburetor heat at the first sign of engine roughness or unexplained RPM loss. At low altitude over water, the decision window is measured in seconds — not minutes. Off Runway 22 at KTPF, the off-field environment is Hillsborough Bay: a delayed response means a ditching, not a field landing. Remember: the Warrior's fuel selector has LEFT / RIGHT / OFF positions — there is no BOTH. Tank management is your job.
Debrief — teaching points
Carburetor ice forms in conditions you would not expect.
The FAA icing probability chart shows 'serious icing at glide power' at temperatures between roughly 20°C and 30°C when relative humidity is high — exactly the Gulf Coast afternoon conditions at KTPF. You do not need visible ice, freezing temperatures, or IMC. Warm, moist air at reduced power is the classic carb-ice environment. The PA-28-161's Lycoming O-320 is carbureted; it has no alternate air system. Carburetor heat is the only tool.
The first symptom is subtle — a dropping tachometer and engine roughness.
In a fixed-pitch airplane like the Warrior, carburetor ice first shows as engine roughness and an unexplained RPM decrease. There is no dramatic power cut. Pilots who are not actively monitoring the tachometer miss the early warning. By the time the roughness is obvious, significant ice has accumulated. Scan the tachometer as part of your regular instrument scan, especially in conducive conditions.
Apply full carburetor heat — not partial — and expect an initial RPM drop.
When you apply carb heat to an iced carburetor, the RPM will drop further before it rises. This is expected and normal: the heat is melting ice and the resulting water is briefly disrupting combustion. Do not remove carb heat when the RPM drops — that is the heat working. Hold it full on. The RPM will recover as the ice clears, typically within 15–30 seconds depending on ice accumulation. Partial carb heat can worsen the situation by partially melting ice into water ingestion without fully clearing the restriction.
At KTPF Runway 22, an engine failure on departure is a ditching.
The off-field environment off Runway 22's departure end (heading 217°) is open water — Hillsborough Bay. There is no alternate landing surface. If the engine quits on the Runway 22 departure and altitude is insufficient to return to the airport, the outcome is a ditching. This is not a worst-case scenario; it is the geographic reality. Best glide is 73 KIAS. Doors unlatched before water contact. Master off just before impact. Flaps for slowest possible touchdown speed — impact energy rises with the square of touchdown speed, so the slowest possible speed matters most. Know this before you line up on Runway 22.
Proactive carb heat use in conducive conditions is not optional.
The PA-28-161 POH and the FAA Pilot's Handbook of Aeronautical Knowledge both recommend applying carburetor heat when conditions are conducive to icing — before the symptom appears. In a Gulf Coast summer departure, with OAT near 27°C and dew point near 21°C, that means applying carb heat during the run-up check (and confirming the expected RPM drop, then recovery) and considering its use during climb in visible moisture or high humidity. Waiting for the roughness to appear at 350 ft AGL over Hillsborough Bay is waiting too long.
The Warrior's fuel selector is LEFT / RIGHT / OFF — there is no BOTH position.
Unlike some Cessnas, the PA-28-161 has no BOTH position on the fuel selector. You must actively manage left and right tank selection. Forgetting to switch tanks during flight can lead to fuel starvation on one side while the other tank is full. In this scenario, you were on LEFT tank at departure. If you had experienced a fuel starvation issue (not the case here, but a real Warrior hazard), you would need to switch to RIGHT. Know your fuel selector and plan your tank-switching protocol before flight.
Built from the real accident record
Scenario built from NTSB CEN12LA175 (2012 PA-28-161 carburetor ice / power loss during climb), LAX03LA238 (2003 PA-28-161 carb ice / stall on go-around), CEN09CA532 (2009 PA-28-161 carb ice / forced landing), ATL04LA124 (2004 PA-28-161 carb ice / beach landing), and NYC03LA012 (2002 PA-28-161 student pilot carb ice). Regional ditching precedents: ATL97LA099 (1997 P210N Gulf ditching), NYC03LA109 (2003 C175A coastal ditching), BFO91LA069 (1991 C177RG river ditching). Localized to Peter O Knight Airport (KTPF), Tampa, FL.
NTSB reports: CEN12LA175 · LAX03LA238 · CEN09CA532 · ATL04LA124 · NYC03LA012 · ATL97LA099 · NYC03LA109 · BFO91LA069
ACS tasks: PA.I.F — Weather Information · PA.I.G — Cross-Country Flight Planning · PA.IX.C — Emergency Approach and Landing · PA.I.H — Human Factors · PA.II.B — Engine Starting / Systems Preflight
Relevant FARs: §91.3 · §91.13 · §91.185
Step through the full decision tree, make the calls, and see where each choice leads — then debrief it with your CFI.
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