Rough Climb Over Tampa Bay
Partial power loss on departure from a water-surrounded field — carburetor ice, fuel management, and the cost of delay
The scenario
Departing Peter O Knight Airport (KTPF), Tampa, FL — Runway 22, climbing out on a 217° heading. Elevation 8 ft MSL; the runway is essentially at sea level. This is a non-towered field (CTAF 122.8); you are in Class G airspace, but you are immediately under the Tampa Class B shelf (1,200 ft MSL floor, 10,000 ft MSL ceiling).
It is a warm, hazy Florida afternoon in late spring: OAT 29°C, dew point 23°C, altimeter 29.91. Scattered clouds at 2,500 ft, light rain shower two miles to the west. Visibility 7 SM. Classic Gulf Coast conditions — warm, moist, and exactly the environment the FAA icing probability chart marks as 'serious icing at glide power, moderate icing at cruise power.' The Piper Warrior's carbureted Lycoming O-320 is susceptible to carburetor ice in these conditions.
You are 450 ft AGL, climbing through 79 KIAS (Vy, best rate of climb), heading 217°, when the engine begins to run rough. Power is noticeably down — the tachometer is dropping. The water of Tampa Bay fills the windscreen ahead and to both sides. Off Runway 22's climb-out (217°), the off-field environment is mostly open water, with some medium development and grassland — a ditching zone. KTPF is non-towered; you are on CTAF.
Aircraft: Piper PA-28-161 Warrior, solo, full fuel (48 gallons usable), within limits. Carbureted Lycoming O-320-D, fixed-pitch prop, steam panel, fuel selector on LEFT tank (you switched to LEFT at the run-up to begin the left tank). Nothing was written up; the airplane was airworthy at departure.
Pilot: you — a Private pilot, current, roughly 180 hours total. You did not apply carburetor heat during the run-up because the engine ran smoothly. You did not apply it after takeoff because you were focused on the climb and the fuel selector position. You are not familiar with KTPF; this is your first departure from this field.
- {'label': 'Field', 'value': 'KTPF · Peter O Knight'}
- {'label': 'Runways', 'value': '4/22 · 18/36'}
- {'label': 'Elevation', 'value': '8 ft'}
- {'label': 'Aircraft', 'value': 'PA-28-161'}
- {'label': 'Dominant phase', 'value': 'Landing / Approach'}
The decision
Before we get into the decision tree — what do you already know about carburetor ice in the Piper Warrior and fuel management in the PA-28-161? (Pick all that apply; this records your baseline.)
What the record shows
What the NTSB files show
NTSB CEN12LA175 (2012): A Piper PA-28-161 on an instrument instructional flight encountered carburetor ice during climb through 6,500 feet. The engine ran rough and lost power. The probable cause was carburetor icing in conditions conducive to serious icing, with a contributing factor of limited carburetor heat valve travel from recent maintenance. The pilot did not apply carburetor heat proactively.
NTSB LAX03LA238 (2003): A Piper PA-28-161 experienced partial engine power loss during initial climb from Torrance due to carburetor icing. During a go-around attempt, the pilot failed to maintain adequate airspeed, resulting in a stall and collision with power lines and terrain. The probable cause was carburetor icing and the pilot's failure to use carburetor heat and maintain airspeed during the aborted landing.
NTSB CHI05LA226 (2005, FATAL): A Piper PA-28-161 on an instructional flight from Culver, Indiana, lost engine power due to left magneto failure during initial climb after takeoff and subsequently stalled. The probable cause was partial magneto failure caused by improper maintenance, with contributing factors including the instructor's failure to maintain airspeed and follow emergency procedures.
NTSB ERA14LA141 (2014): A Piper PA-28-161 experienced partial engine power loss during takeoff from Atlantic City International Airport and the pilot executed a forced landing to the airport perimeter road. The probable cause was a partial loss of engine power for reasons that could not be determined during postaccident examination or engine test run.
The local environment at KTPF makes this scenario particularly unforgiving: Runway 22's departure end (heading 217°) is open water — Tampa Bay. An engine failure on the Runway 22 departure at low altitude is a ditching, not a field landing. There is no open field, no road, no park. The water is the off-field environment. This is not hypothetical; it is the NLCD ground cover off that runway end.
The real accidents cited above occurred at other airports and in other aircraft — NOT at Peter O Knight Airport. KTPF has its own accident history (forced landing 19.4%, loss of control 16.7%, ditching 11.1%), but these specific events happened elsewhere. The scenario is localized to KTPF to make the off-field environment real and consequential for you as a student here.
The consistent thread across all these events: carburetor ice in the PA-28-161 is insidious. It builds gradually, the first symptom is roughness and a dropping tachometer (not a dramatic power cut), and by the time it is obvious, it may be too late for a comfortable recovery. The fix — full carburetor heat, immediately, at the first sign of roughness in conducive conditions — is simple. The failure is always a delay.
Key lesson — In warm, moist Gulf Coast air, the PA-28-161's carbureted O-320 can accumulate serious carburetor ice even at cruise power and above-freezing temperatures. Apply full carburetor heat at the first sign of engine roughness or unexplained RPM loss. At low altitude over water, the decision window is measured in seconds — not minutes. Off Runway 22 at KTPF, the off-field environment is Tampa Bay: a delayed response means a ditching, not a field landing. Additionally, the PA-28-161's LEFT / RIGHT fuel selector (no BOTH position) makes fuel tank management a pilot responsibility — switching tanks at the run-up and monitoring fuel flow is essential.
Debrief — teaching points
Carburetor ice forms in conditions you would not expect.
The FAA icing probability chart shows 'serious icing at glide power' at temperatures between roughly 20°C and 30°C when relative humidity is high — exactly the Gulf Coast afternoon conditions at KTPF. You do not need visible ice, freezing temperatures, or IMC. Warm, moist air at reduced power is the classic carb-ice environment. The PA-28-161's Lycoming O-320 is carbureted; it has no fuel injection and no alternate air system. Carburetor heat is the only tool.
The first symptom is subtle — a dropping tachometer and engine roughness.
In a fixed-pitch airplane like the PA-28-161, carburetor ice first shows as engine roughness and an unexplained RPM decrease. There is no dramatic power cut. Pilots who are not actively monitoring the tachometer miss the early warning. By the time the roughness is obvious, significant ice has accumulated. Scan the tachometer as part of your regular instrument scan, especially in conducive conditions.
Apply full carburetor heat — not partial — and expect an initial RPM drop.
When you apply carb heat to an iced carburetor, the RPM will drop further before it rises. This is expected and normal: the heat is melting ice and the resulting water is briefly disrupting combustion. Do not remove carb heat when the RPM drops — that is the heat working. Hold it full on. The RPM will recover as the ice clears, typically within 15–30 seconds depending on ice accumulation. Partial carb heat can worsen the situation by partially melting ice into water ingestion without fully clearing the restriction.
At KTPF Runway 22, an engine failure on departure is a ditching.
The off-field environment off Runway 22's departure end (heading 217°) is open water — Tampa Bay. There is no alternate landing surface. If the engine quits on the Runway 22 departure and altitude is insufficient to return to the airport, the outcome is a ditching. This is not a worst-case scenario; it is the geographic reality. Best glide is 73 KIAS. Doors unlatched before water contact. Master off just before impact. Flaps for slowest possible touchdown speed — impact energy rises with the square of touchdown speed, so the slowest possible speed matters most. Know this before you line up on Runway 22.
The PA-28-161 has LEFT / RIGHT fuel selector with no BOTH position — manage your tanks.
Unlike Cessnas, the Piper Warrior has no BOTH position on the fuel selector. You must switch tanks manually during flight. Fuel starvation from forgetting to switch tanks is a real PA-28-161 accident cause. Establish a tank-switching protocol: switch to the opposite tank every 30 minutes of cruise, or as directed by your flight plan. Monitor fuel flow and tank quantity. At takeoff, select the fullest tank; at the run-up, switch to the other tank to confirm it feeds. If you depart on the LEFT tank (as in this scenario), know when you will switch to RIGHT, and do it on schedule.
Proactive carb heat use in conducive conditions is not optional.
The PA-28-161 POH and the FAA Pilot's Handbook of Aeronautical Knowledge both recommend applying carburetor heat when conditions are conducive to icing — before the symptom appears. In a Gulf Coast summer departure, with OAT near 29°C and dew point near 23°C, that means applying carb heat during the run-up check (and confirming the expected RPM drop, then recovery) and considering its use during climb in visible moisture or high humidity. Waiting for the roughness to appear at 450 ft AGL over Tampa Bay is waiting too long.
Built from the real accident record
Scenario built from NTSB CEN12LA175 (2012 PA-28-161 carburetor ice / power loss during climb), LAX03LA238 (2003 PA-28-161 carb ice / stall on go-around), CHI05LA226 (2005 PA-28-161 magneto failure / stall), ERA14LA141 (2014 PA-28-161 partial power loss at takeoff), WPR10FA264 (2010 PA-28-161 in-flight fire / maintenance failure), CHI08LA197 (2008 PA-28-161 power loss / overrun), IAD05LA133 (2005 PA-28-161 total engine failure / overhaul interval), and DEN03LA139 (2003 PA-28-161 downdraft / forced landing). Localized to Peter O Knight Airport (KTPF), Tampa, FL.
NTSB reports: CEN12LA175 · LAX03LA238 · CHI05LA226 · ERA14LA141 · WPR10FA264 · CHI08LA197 · IAD05LA133 · DEN03LA139
ACS tasks: PA.I.F — Weather Information · PA.I.G — Cross-Country Flight Planning · PA.IX.C — Emergency Approach and Landing · PA.I.H — Human Factors · PA.II.B — Engine Starting / Systems Preflight · PA.III.A — Normal Takeoff and Climb
Relevant FARs: §91.3 · §91.13 · §91.185
Step through the full decision tree, make the calls, and see where each choice leads — then debrief it with your CFI.
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