Rough Climb Over Tampa Bay
Carburetor ice, partial power loss, and a low-altitude decision — the Warrior's forgiving wing is no substitute for airmanship
The scenario
Departing Tampa Executive Airport (KVDF), Tampa, FL — Runway 05, climbing out on a 042° heading. Elevation 22 ft MSL; the runway is essentially at sea level. You are departing a non-towered field (CTAF 122.8) in Class G airspace, but you are climbing toward Tampa Class B airspace, which overlies KVDF at 3,000 MSL and above.
It is a warm, humid Florida afternoon in late spring: OAT 29°C, dew point 23°C, altimeter 29.92. Scattered clouds at 2,800 ft, light rain shower two miles to the northeast. Visibility 8 SM. This is classic Gulf Coast carburetor icing weather — warm, moist air, and exactly the environment the FAA icing probability chart marks as 'serious icing at glide power, moderate icing at cruise power.'
You are 450 ft AGL, climbing through 79 KIAS (Vy, best rate of climb), heading 042°, when the engine begins to run rough. Power is noticeably down — the tachometer is dropping. Off the Runway 05 departure end (heading 042°), the off-field environment is wooded wetland, medium development, and pasture — workable forced-landing terrain. But you are low, the engine is failing, and the decision window is closing.
Aircraft: Piper PA-28-161 Warrior, solo, full fuel (left and right tanks), within limits. Carbureted Lycoming O-320-D, fixed-pitch prop, steam panel, fuel selector on LEFT (you switched to LEFT after takeoff per your normal procedure). Nothing was written up; the airplane was airworthy at departure.
Pilot: you — a Private pilot, current, roughly 180 hours total. You did not apply carburetor heat during the run-up because the engine ran smoothly. You did not apply it after takeoff because you were heads-down on the climb and the engine sounded fine at first.
- {'label': 'Field', 'value': 'KVDF · Tampa Executive'}
- {'label': 'Runways', 'value': '5/23 · 18/36'}
- {'label': 'Elevation', 'value': '22 ft'}
- {'label': 'Aircraft', 'value': 'PA-28-161'}
- {'label': 'Dominant phase', 'value': 'Landing / Takeoff'}
The decision
Before we get into the decision tree — what do you already know about carburetor ice in the Piper Warrior? (Pick all that apply; this records your baseline.)
What the record shows
What the NTSB files show
NTSB CEN12LA175 (2012): A Piper PA-28-161 on an instrument instructional flight encountered carburetor icing during climb through 6,500 feet. The engine lost power progressively. The probable cause was carburetor icing in conditions conducive to serious icing, with a contributing factor of limited carburetor heat valve travel from recent maintenance. The pilot did not apply carburetor heat proactively.
NTSB LAX03LA238 (2003): A Piper PA-28-161 experienced partial engine power loss during initial climb from Torrance due to carburetor icing. During a go-around attempt, the pilot failed to maintain adequate airspeed, resulting in a stall and collision with power lines and terrain. The probable cause was carburetor icing and the pilot's failure to use carburetor heat.
NTSB CEN09CA532 (2009): A Piper PA-28-161 on a return-to-airport flight lost engine power during descent due to carburetor icing one mile from the airport. The pilot made a forced landing in a corn field and sustained a broken arm. The probable cause was failure to apply carburetor heat in icing-conducive conditions.
NTSB ATL04LA124 (2004): A Piper PA-28-161 on a personal flight lost engine power during climb in conditions favorable for carburetor ice formation, and the pilot made a forced landing on a beach. The probable cause was the pilot's failure to use carburetor heat when weather conditions were favorable for carburetor ice formation.
NTSB NYC03LA012 (2002): A Piper PA-28-161 student pilot on a solo instructional flight lost engine power near Lakewood, New Jersey, due to carburetor ice. The probable cause was the pilot's improper use of carburetor heat, which failed to remove accumulated ice.
The local environment at KVDF makes this scenario particularly consequential: Runway 05's departure end is wooded wetland, pasture, and medium development — workable forced-landing terrain. Runway 36's departure end is open water and medium development — a forced landing there is a ditching, not a field landing. This is not hypothetical; it is the NLCD ground cover off those runway ends. The real accidents cited above occurred at other airports and in other aircraft — NOT at Tampa Executive Airport. KVDF has its own accident history (see field dominant patterns: LOSS_OF_CONTROL_GROUND 18.4%, HARD_LANDING 18.4%, FORCED_LANDING 15.8%), but these specific carburetor ice events happened elsewhere. The scenario is localized to KVDF to make the off-field environment real and consequential for you as a student here.
The consistent thread across all these events: carburetor ice in the PA-28-161 Warrior is insidious. It builds gradually, the first symptom is roughness and a dropping tachometer (not a dramatic power cut), and by the time it is obvious, it may be too late for a comfortable recovery. The fix — full carburetor heat, immediately, at the first sign of roughness in conducive conditions — is simple. The failure is always a delay.
Key lesson — In warm, moist Gulf Coast air, the Warrior's carbureted O-320 can accumulate serious carburetor ice even at cruise power and above-freezing temperatures. Apply full carburetor heat at the first sign of engine roughness or unexplained RPM loss. At low altitude, the decision window is measured in seconds — not minutes. Off Runway 05 at KVDF, the off-field environment is wooded wetland and pasture — workable forced-landing terrain. Off Runway 36, it is open water — a ditching. Know your runway and the terrain off each end before you line up.
Debrief — teaching points
Carburetor ice forms in conditions you would not expect.
The FAA icing probability chart shows 'serious icing at glide power' at temperatures between roughly 20°C and 30°C when relative humidity is high — exactly the Gulf Coast afternoon conditions at KVDF. You do not need visible ice, freezing temperatures, or IMC. Warm, moist air at reduced power is the classic carb-ice environment. The Warrior's Lycoming O-320 is carbureted; it has no fuel injection or alternate air system. Carburetor heat is the only tool.
The first symptom is subtle — a dropping tachometer and engine roughness.
In a fixed-pitch airplane like the Warrior, carburetor ice first shows as engine roughness and an unexplained RPM decrease. There is no dramatic power cut. Pilots who are not actively monitoring the tachometer miss the early warning. By the time the roughness is obvious, significant ice has accumulated. Scan the tachometer as part of your regular instrument scan, especially in conducive conditions.
Apply full carburetor heat — not partial — and expect an initial RPM drop.
When you apply carb heat to an iced carburetor, the RPM will drop further before it rises. This is expected and normal: the heat is melting ice and the resulting water is briefly disrupting combustion. Do not remove carb heat when the RPM drops — that is the heat working. Hold it full on. The RPM will recover as the ice clears, typically within 15–30 seconds depending on ice accumulation. Partial carb heat can worsen the situation by partially melting ice into water ingestion without fully clearing the restriction.
At KVDF, know the off-field environment off each runway end.
Runway 05's departure end (heading 042°) is wooded wetland, pasture, and medium development — workable forced-landing terrain. Runway 23's departure end (heading 222°) is pasture/hay, open water, and medium development — mixed. Runway 18's departure end (heading 180°) is low-density development and wooded wetland — marginal. Runway 36's departure end (heading 360°) is medium development, wooded wetland, and open water — ditching terrain. If the engine fails on departure, the off-field environment determines whether you have a forced-landing option or a ditching. Know this before you line up.
Proactive carb heat use in conducive conditions is not optional.
The Warrior POH and the FAA Pilot's Handbook of Aeronautical Knowledge both recommend applying carburetor heat when conditions are conducive to icing — before the symptom appears. In a Gulf Coast summer departure, with OAT near 28°C and dew point near 23°C, that means applying carb heat during the run-up check (and confirming the expected RPM drop, then recovery) and considering its use during climb in visible moisture or high humidity. Waiting for the roughness to appear at 450 ft AGL is waiting too long.
The Warrior's fuel selector is LEFT / RIGHT — no BOTH position. Tank management is your job.
Unlike some Cessnas, the Warrior has no BOTH position on the fuel selector. You must actively manage left and right tanks to maintain balanced fuel burn and prevent fuel starvation. If you forget to switch tanks and one tank runs dry, the engine will quit. This is a Piper-class accident. Establish a clear tank-switching protocol (e.g., switch every 15 minutes, or every 500 feet of altitude gain) and stick to it. In this scenario, you switched to LEFT after takeoff — correct. But if the engine failure had been fuel starvation instead of carb ice, the diagnosis and recovery would have been different.
Built from the real accident record
Scenario built from NTSB CEN12LA175 (2012 PA-28-161 carburetor ice / power loss during climb), LAX03LA238 (2003 PA-28-161 carb ice / stall on go-around), CEN09CA532 (2009 PA-28-161 carb ice / forced landing), ATL04LA124 (2004 PA-28-161 carb ice / beach landing), and NYC03LA012 (2002 PA-28-161 improper carb heat use). Regional precedents GAA17CA105, ERA17CA149, GAA16CA149 (crosswind control loss). Anonymized and localized to KVDF.
NTSB reports: CEN12LA175 · LAX03LA238 · CEN09CA532 · ATL04LA124 · NYC03LA012 · GAA17CA105 · ERA17CA149 · GAA16CA149
ACS tasks: PA.I.F — Weather Information · PA.I.G — Cross-Country Flight Planning · PA.IX.C — Emergency Approach and Landing · PA.I.H — Human Factors · PA.II.B — Engine Starting / Systems Preflight
Relevant FARs: §91.3 · §91.13 · §91.185
Step through the full decision tree, make the calls, and see where each choice leads — then debrief it with your CFI.
Open the interactive scenario →All sample scenarios · More Piper Warrior scenarios · More scenarios at KVDF