Rough Climb from Tampa North
Partial power loss on initial climb in carburetor-ice conditions — the decision window is measured in seconds
The scenario
Departing Tampa North Aero Park Airport (X39), Tampa, FL — Runway 14, climbing out on a 141° heading. Elevation 68 ft MSL; the runway is essentially at sea level.
It is a hazy Florida afternoon in late spring: OAT 27°C, dew point 21°C, altimeter 29.92. Scattered clouds at 2,500 ft, light rain shower two miles to the northeast. Visibility 8 SM. Classic Gulf Coast conditions — warm, moist, and exactly the environment the FAA icing probability chart marks as 'serious icing at glide power, moderate icing at cruise power.'
You are 350 ft AGL, climbing through 72 KIAS (near Vy of 74 KIAS), heading 141°, when the engine begins to run rough. Power is noticeably down — the tachometer is dropping. The terrain ahead is a mix of medium development, low-density development, and wooded wetland — not ideal forced-landing terrain. X39 is non-towered (CTAF); you are in Class G airspace below 3,000 ft MSL. The Tampa Class B airspace ceiling is 3,000 ft MSL.
Aircraft: Piper PA-28-180, solo, 40 gallons usable fuel (left and right tanks), within limits. Carbureted Lycoming O-360-A, fixed-pitch prop, steam panel, fuel selector on RIGHT tank (you switched to RIGHT after takeoff per standard procedure). Nothing was written up; the airplane was airworthy at departure.
Pilot: you — a Private pilot, current, roughly 200 hours total. You did not apply carburetor heat during the run-up because the engine ran smoothly. You did not apply it after takeoff because you were heads-down on the climb and the engine sounded normal until now.
- {'label': 'Field', 'value': 'X39 · Tampa North Aero Park'}
- {'label': 'Runways', 'value': '14/32'}
- {'label': 'Elevation', 'value': '68 ft'}
- {'label': 'Aircraft', 'value': 'PA-28-180'}
- {'label': 'Dominant phase', 'value': 'Takeoff / Landing'}
The decision
Before we get into the decision tree — what do you already know about carburetor ice and fuel management in the PA-28-180? (Pick all that apply; this records your baseline.)
What the record shows
What the NTSB files show
NTSB DEN07CA035 (2006): A Piper PA-28-180 on a personal flight lost engine power on base leg due to carburetor icing. The pilot made a forced landing attempt on a road, swerved to avoid car lights, and struck a tree, resulting in substantial damage. The probable cause was carburetor icing in conditions conducive to serious icing, with contributing factors including unsuitable terrain and the tree obstacle. The pilot had not applied carburetor heat proactively.
NTSB ATL03LA148 (2003): A Piper PA-28 on a personal flight experienced engine power loss during takeoff climb after extended ground operation in conditions favorable for carburetor icing. The probable cause was the pilot's failure to apply carburetor heat prior to takeoff, allowing ice to form in the induction system.
NTSB NYC03LA096 (2003): A Piper PA-28-180 on an instructional flight experienced partial engine power loss on initial climb after takeoff and made a forced landing in a field. The accident resulted from an inadequate 100-hour inspection that failed to detect a loose fuel line connection. Night conditions were a contributing factor.
NTSB ANC25LA094 (2025): A Piper PA-28-180 experienced partial engine power loss with vibration during climb-out following a low-altitude runway inspection pass and made a forced landing in terrain. The accident resulted from engine malfunction that prevented continued climb.
The real accidents cited above occurred at other airports and in other aircraft types — NOT at Tampa North Aero Park Airport (X39). X39 has its own accident history (see field dominant patterns: LOSS_OF_CONTROL_INFLIGHT 27.3%, LOSS_OF_CONTROL_GROUND 18.2%, OBSTACLE_ON_TAKEOFF_LANDING 9.1%). The scenario is localized to X39 to make the off-field environment real and consequential for you as a student here.
The consistent thread across all these events: carburetor ice in the PA-28-180 is insidious. It builds gradually, the first symptom is roughness and a dropping tachometer (not a dramatic power cut), and by the time it is obvious, it may be too late for a comfortable recovery. The fix — full carburetor heat, immediately, at the first sign of roughness in conducive conditions — is simple. The failure is always a delay. Additionally, the PA-28-180's LEFT / RIGHT fuel selector (no BOTH position) means the pilot must actively manage tank selection; running a selected tank dry is a starvation trap that mimics carb ice symptoms.
Key lesson — In warm, moist Gulf Coast air, the PA-28-180's carbureted O-360-A can accumulate serious carburetor ice even at cruise power and above-freezing temperatures. Apply full carburetor heat at the first sign of engine roughness or unexplained RPM loss. At low altitude over poor forced-landing terrain, the decision window is measured in seconds — not minutes. Off Runway 14 at X39, the off-field environment is medium development, low-density development, and wooded wetland: a delayed response means a forced landing in poor terrain, not a field landing. Know your fuel selector position (LEFT or RIGHT, never BOTH) and monitor tank status continuously.
Debrief — teaching points
Carburetor ice forms in conditions you would not expect.
The FAA icing probability chart shows 'serious icing at glide power' at temperatures between roughly 20°C and 30°C when relative humidity is high — exactly the Gulf Coast afternoon conditions at X39. You do not need visible ice, freezing temperatures, or IMC. Warm, moist air at reduced power is the classic carb-ice environment. The PA-28-180's Lycoming O-360-A is carbureted; it has no fuel injection and no alternate air system. Carburetor heat is the only tool.
The first symptom is subtle — a dropping tachometer and engine roughness.
In a fixed-pitch airplane like the PA-28-180, carburetor ice first shows as engine roughness and an unexplained RPM decrease. There is no dramatic power cut. Pilots who are not actively monitoring the tachometer miss the early warning. By the time the roughness is obvious, significant ice has accumulated. Scan the tachometer as part of your regular instrument scan, especially in conducive conditions.
Apply full carburetor heat — not partial — and expect an initial RPM drop.
When you apply carb heat to an iced carburetor, the RPM will drop further before it rises. This is expected and normal: the heat is melting ice and the resulting water is briefly disrupting combustion. Do not remove carb heat when the RPM drops — that is the heat working. Hold it full on. The RPM will recover as the ice clears, typically within 15–30 seconds depending on ice accumulation. Partial carb heat can worsen the situation by partially melting ice into water ingestion without fully clearing the restriction.
At X39 Runway 14, the off-field environment is poor forced-landing terrain.
The off-field environment off Runway 14's departure end (heading 141°) is medium development, low-density development, and wooded wetland — poor forced-landing terrain. There is no open field, no road, no park. If the engine quits on the Runway 14 departure and altitude is insufficient to return to the airport, the outcome is a forced landing in poor terrain. This is not a worst-case scenario; it is the geographic reality. Best glide is 65 KIAS. Doors unlatched before landing. Master off just before impact. Flaps for slowest possible touchdown speed — impact energy rises with the square of touchdown speed, so the slowest possible speed matters most. Know this before you line up on Runway 14.
The PA-28-180 fuel selector has LEFT / RIGHT positions — no BOTH. Active tank management is required.
Unlike some aircraft, the PA-28-180 has no BOTH position on the fuel selector. You must actively switch between LEFT and RIGHT tanks. Running a selected tank dry — or taking off on a near-empty tank — is the signature starvation trap in this airplane. The symptoms of fuel starvation (engine roughness, power loss, tachometer drop) are identical to carburetor ice. Always verify fuel selector position and tank status during the preflight and before takeoff. If you experience roughness and the fuel selector is on a tank you know is low or empty, switch to the other tank immediately. If both tanks are full and you are in conducive carb-ice conditions, apply carb heat.
Built from the real accident record
Scenario built from NTSB DEN07CA035 (2006 PA-28-180 carburetor ice / forced landing on road), ATL03LA148 (2003 PA-28-180 carb heat omission on takeoff), NYC03LA096 (2003 PA-28-180 fuel line failure on climb), and ANC25LA094 (2025 PA-28-180 engine malfunction on climb-out). Anonymized and localized to X39 Tampa North Aero Park Airport.
NTSB reports: DEN07CA035 · ATL03LA148 · NYC03LA096 · ANC25LA094
ACS tasks: PA.I.F — Weather Information · PA.I.G — Cross-Country Flight Planning · PA.IX.C — Emergency Approach and Landing · PA.I.H — Human Factors · PA.II.B — Engine Starting / Systems Preflight
Relevant FARs: §91.3 · §91.13 · §91.185
Step through the full decision tree, make the calls, and see where each choice leads — then debrief it with your CFI.
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